An honest running audit — where each piece actually sits, what’s blocking it, what’s next. Anything with “ready” means analytically complete and awaiting a specific action, not an aspirational timeline.
Status: v9 draft, ~11,000 words, PDF
re-rendered. Systematic ΔR² evaluation across a 1,520-cell
grid; Odum-tradition claims tested against modern data; Energy
Adequacy framing threaded through household EROI ↔︎ HEII
quantile spread ↔︎ societal NER ↔︎ MEP (Q3.18). Six falsification steps
run on the Q3.16-E2 renewables → life-expectancy puzzle; Q3.24
closes it (demographic transition, −0.52 years per pp elderly
share, p = 2.2e-9). Q3.34 extends the demographic control across the
full 918-cell grid: 288/309 significant findings (93%) survive robust.
Q3.33 Kigali F-gas amendment + Q3.35A oil-price shocks
form the paper’s natural-experiment pair (external policy shock ×
external price shock). Q3.35B projects the alpha grid onto native UN SDG
indicators; Q3.35C projected onto a Doughnut-Economics country snapshot
(initial 17-dimension construction, since superseded). Q3.36 +
Q3.37 extend the framework outward into finance and close the
Doughnut: (a) capital-market alpha — sovereign debt levels are
predicted by sector_industrial (ΔR² = 0.219, p = 3e-8) and
by heii_norm_p10 on debt-service burden (ΔR² = 0.177, p =
8e-4); equity outcomes show weaker alpha (boundary claim: emergy
captures physical-provisioning that debt finances, not forward growth
options); (b) the full 21-dimension Doughnut (12 social-floor + 9
ecological-ceiling) with continuous signed distance-from-boundary; (c)
cross-benchmark validation of the Q3.35A oil-shock finding across Brent,
Dubai, WTI, average (all +0.27 to +0.29 coefficients, p < 5e-3).
Q3.43 names the mechanism: UPBEAT (World Bank / ESMAP)
+ LAC-UB + ESMAP RISE + AfDB ERI harmonised into one 39,000-row
country-year utility + regulatory panel, z-normalised within (source,
indicator). heii_norm_p90 predicts utility Collection Rate
at ΔR² = +0.73 (p = 7e-12, N = 52) — utility financial stress is the
intermediate mechanism the Q3.36A sovereign-debt result pointed at.
Q3.44B confirms the direction: within-country
fixed-effect panel with 2-year cross-lag shows HEII_norm at t-2
forward-predicts Collection Rate at t (p = 0.036, N = 361, 52
countries), while the reverse lag is null (p = 0.81).
Q3.44C extends to Afrobarometer R9+R10 microdata (39
countries × 9 items, all publicly downloadable): HEII_norm_p90 carries
alpha only on lived_no_electricity (ΔR² = +0.23, p
= 0.012), not on the four other lived-poverty items nor the perception
items — HEII is a specifically-electricity signal, mediation is
mechanical not cultural. Q3.46B robustness: swapping
the GDP-per-capita baseline for household private consumption (WB
NE.CON.PRVT.PC.KD) survives across 3,117 refitted cells —
235 findings survive or strengthen, 73 weaken or become fragile, 46 new
findings emerge under the cleaner baseline. The flagship
collection_rate ← heii_norm cell nearly doubles (ΔR² =
+0.37 → +0.71) under the consumption baseline; consumption is now the
paper’s preferred specification. Q3.46C identification:
with a Gini-implied log-normal multiplier on the annual HEII panel, the
P90 rung enters the cross-lag directly — forward p = 5×10⁻⁵ (N = 356, 51
countries), reverse null (p = 0.92). Direction of causality identified
within country and over time.
Reproduction: 12 scripts wired into a documented pipeline; every figure and table is regeneratable from the tagged commit.
Next: external co-author read + finalise which corresponding- author byline lands. No analytical blockers.
Status: draft rendered with 5 embedded figures, 7 pages, Cell Press Highlights + reviewer line numbers. Cover letter drafted with suggested reviewers named.
Contribution: 129 countries × 17,028 cells synthesis; Nh aggregation correction; cross-signal PCA + archetype clustering across the household-energy landscape; 67× per-capita mismatch quantification.
Next: internal re-read against the current data (Q3.7-Q3.23 enrichments), then external co-author read.
Status: draft at 1,183 words (target 1,500). Cover letter drafted. Headline result is the same 67-fold per-capita cumulative CO2 disparity that anchors the Joule Contribution — condensed to a policy-actionable claim.
Blockers: ORCID for corresponding-author byline; graphical figure at 300 dpi (one map, one bar chart).
Status: all three JOSS-READY (internal QA score ≥ 75). Cover letters templated; JOSS metadata YAML drafted for each.
Blockers: ORCID (JOSS submission form requires it).
Wave 2 (READY): emburdenweather,
emburdenhealth, emburdengeo. Submit after Wave
1 lands. Wave 3: emburdenstats,
emburdenutil, emburdener,
emburdenvis, emburdenpub,
emburdentest, emburdenplus.
Status: 9-section skeleton drafted. Target 8,000-10,000 words. Covers all 13 R packages plus emburdensynth’s synthetic microdata pipeline, with a worked global-synthesis application in the last section.
Model papers: tidyverse (JOSS 2019), scikit-learn (JMLR 2011), sf (R Journal 2018), fixest (R Journal 2019).
Next: writing time. No data or credential blockers.
Status: not yet drafted. Queued behind Joule (the Joule methods paper is the natural citation anchor; drafting the descriptor first would leave it referring to a not-yet-published methods paper).
Once written: documents the 17,028-cell × 50-field parquet as a citable dataset with a Zenodo DOI, so downstream users can cite the data independently of the methods paper.
Blockers: Joule submission at least under-review, plus a Zenodo
record upload (still open — see
emburdensynth/R/global_data_download.R for the empty
record_id fields).
Status: 10-section scoping document only. Analysis cannot begin without upstream data.
Data blockers: EM-DAT (natural hazards catalog), GDELT (event-level media coverage), IHME GBD (health outcomes at fine geography). Each needs credentials or an institutional agreement.
Anticipated headline once unblocked: distributed energy resources reduce excess mortality during heat waves in high-burden populations by ~2 deaths/100k per 10% DER penetration. This is a prediction based on US-branch (asthma-analysis, outage-analysis) work that Q3.16-E1 lifted to global grain at n=63 and n=178.
Each paper answers a different question at a different scale, so a single methodological debate can’t unravel the whole stack. Reviewers at each stage inherit peer-reviewed context from the layer below.
emburdensynth/R/global_data_download.R:20-24).Everything else is writing time.